Can Elon Musk cut $2 trillion from US government spending?

• 分类: Clippings
• 创建: 2024-11-14
• 标签: clippings Ben Chu 朱本

Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify
BBC Verify 政策与分析记者

Elon Musk will co-head a new Department of Government Efficiency
埃隆·马斯克将联合领导新成立的政府效率部

The boss of Tesla and the social media site X, Elon Musk, suggested last month at Donald Trump’s rally in New York City that it would be possible to cut “at least $2 trillion” from US government spending by eradicating “waste”.
特斯拉和社交媒体网站 X 的老板埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 上个月在纽约举行的唐纳德·特朗普集会上表示，通过消除“浪费”，有可能从美国政府支出中削减“至少 2 万亿美元”。

Musk has now been appointed to co-head a new Department of Government Efficiency by the incoming US president, giving him an opportunity to try to put his plans into action.
即将上任的美国总统任命马斯克为新成立的政府效率部的联合负责人，这让他有机会尝试将自己的计划付诸行动。

In the most recent fiscal year (from October 2023 to September 2024) the US federal government spent $6.75 trillion (£5.3 trillion) according to the US Treasury.
根据美国财政部的数据，在最近一个财年（从 2023 年 10 月到 2024 年 9 月），美国联邦政府支出了 6.75 万亿美元（5.3 万亿英镑）。

This means Musk’s proposed cuts of $2 trillion would represent around a cut of around 30% of total federal government spending — also known as national spending in other countries.
这意味着马斯克提议的 2 万亿美元削减计划将削减联邦政府总支出（也称为其他国家的国民支出）的 30% 左右。

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  特朗普表示他将在执政期间做的七件事
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  他什么时候再次当总统？
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  到目前为止，特朗普任命了谁为他的最高团队成员？
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  为什么埃隆·马斯克是特朗普的效率沙皇？

How realistic is that proposal?
该提议有多现实？

To answer that, it’s helpful to break down the total spending figure.
要回答这个问题，分解总支出数字会很有帮助。

Around $880bn (13% of total US government spending) goes on interest payments on the national debt, which means that line of expenditure cannot be reduced without putting the US government in default.
约 8,800 亿美元（占美国政府总支出的 13%）用于支付国债利息，这意味着削减支出不会导致美国政府违约。

Around $1.46 trillion (22%) goes on Social Security, which primarily means pensions for Americans over the retirement age. This is a line of spending which is “mandatory”, meaning it must be spent by law on those eligible.
大约 1.46 万亿美元（22%）用于社会保障，这主要意味着超过退休年龄的美国人的养老金。这是一项“强制性”支出，意味着法律必须将其用于符合资格的人。

Other large mandatory lines of government expenditure include Medicare - a government-funded health insurance program primarily serving Americans aged over 65.
其他大型强制性政府支出包括医疗保险（Medicare）——一项政府资助的健康保险计划，主要为 65 岁以上的美国人提供服务。

So-called “discretionary” US government spending - outlays that are not permanently enshrined in law but have to be voted on annually by US lawmakers - includes defence ($874bn, 13%), transportation ($137bn, 2%) and education, training, employment and social services ($305bn, 5%).
所谓的“可自由裁量”的美国政府支出——未永久写入法律但必须由美国立法者每年投票表决的支出——包括国防（8740 亿美元，13%）、交通（1370 亿美元，2%）和教育，培训、就业和社会服务（3050 亿美元，5%）。

Altogether, discretionary spending accounted for around 25% of the total in the 2023 financial year according to the Congressional Budget Office, with more than half of that going to defence.
根据国会预算办公室的数据，可自由支配支出总共占 2023 财年总额的 25% 左右，其中一半以上用于国防。

In theory, discretionary spending would be easier for the incoming Trump administration to cut than mandatory spending.
从理论上讲，即将上任的特朗普政府比强制性支出更容易削减可自由支配支出。

Donald Trump has said that Musk - and his co-head at the new Department of Government Efficiency, Vivek Ramaswamy - will achieve the savings from dismantling government bureaucracy, slashing excess regulations and restructuring government agencies. In an interview with the BBC in April 2023 Musk claimed to have reduced the staff of Twitter (now X) from 8,000 to 1,500 after acquiring the social network in 2022.
唐纳德·特朗普表示，马斯克和他新任政府效率部联席主管维韦克·拉马斯瓦米将通过废除政府官僚机构、削减多余监管和重组政府机构来节省开支。 2023 年 4 月，马斯克在接受 BBC 采访时声称，在 2022 年收购 Twitter（现在的 X）社交网络后，他将其员工从 8,000 人减少到 1,500 人。

Yet if all of the $2 trillion in US government expenditure savings now being targeted by Musk were to come from discretionary spending, analysts calculate that entire agencies - from transport, to agriculture, to Homeland Security - would have to be entirely closed down. Discretionary spending accounted for only $1.7 trillion in 2023.
然而，如果马斯克目前计划节省的 2 万亿美元美国政府支出全部来自可自由支配支出，分析师估计，从交通、农业到国土安全部的所有机构都将不得不完全关闭。 2023 年可自由支配支出仅为 1.7 万亿美元。

Musk did not specify if he would aim to deliver $2 trillion in savings in a single year, or over a longer period, but many US public finance experts, including those who are in favour in principle of reductions in US government spending, are sceptical savings on such a scale can be found in the near term without either a collapse in the delivery of important government functions or sparking major public resistance.
马斯克没有具体说明他的目标是在一年内还是在更长的时间内实现 2 万亿美元的储蓄，但许多美国公共财政专家，包括那些原则上赞成削减美国政府支出的专家，对储蓄持怀疑态度短期内可以实现如此规模的改革，而不会导致政府重要职能的履行崩溃，也不会引发公众的强烈抵制。

After taking control of the House of Representatives in 2022, Republican lawmakers have struggled to pass legislation to deliver considerably smaller cuts of $130bn in discretionary government spending after meeting opposition from other Republicans.
共和党议员在 2022 年控制众议院后，在遭到其他共和党人的反对后，一直在努力通过立法，大幅削减1300 亿美元的可自由支配政府支出。

It’s also important to note that Donald Trump campaigned on a platform of making Social Security more financially generous, not less, by removing the income tax payable on it. And, on defence, Trump said he would build an “iron dome missile defence shield” around America, implying greater spending in this area, not cuts.
同样重要的是要注意，唐纳德·特朗普的竞选纲领是通过取消应缴所得税，使社会保障在财政上更加慷慨，而不是更少。在国防方面，特朗普表示，他将在美国周围建造“铁穹导弹防御系统”，这意味着该领域的支出将增加，而不是削减。

Total US federal government spending as a share of the US economy in 2024 was around 23% according to the US Treasury.
根据美国财政部的数据， 2024 年美国联邦政府总支出占美国经济的比重约为 23%。

That’s a considerably smaller share than national government spending in other developed countries.
这比其他发达国家的政府支出要小得多。

However, a large share of government spending in the US, including almost all school spending, is done at a state rather than a federal level, and states are funded by local sales and property taxes.
然而，美国政府支出的很大一部分，包括几乎所有的学校支出，都是在州而不是联邦层面完成的，而各州的资金来自地方销售税和财产税。

The International Monetary Fund has projected that total US “general government expenditure”, which includes spending by individual states, will be around 37.5% of its GDP in 2024.
国际货币基金组织预计，到 2024 年，美国“一般政府支出”（包括各个州的支出）将占其 GDP 的 37.5% 左右。

That compares with 43% in the UK, 48% in Germany and 57% in France.

The US government is currently running an annual deficit - a shortfall between its spending and tax revenues - equal to around 6% of its economy. And America’s national debt held by the public is currently equal to around 97% of the size of the economy.

The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) think tank has projected that this is currently set to climb to 125% by 2035.

The CRFB has projected that absent major spending reductions, Donald Trump’s planned tax cuts would considerably widen the US deficit in the coming decade and push up the US national debt to 143% by the middle of the next decade.

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